Oscar thoughts, very briefly:
My pick for Best Picture is The Aviator, though I fear it will lose to Million Dollar Baby. Best Director pick is Martin Scorsese, a snub would be insane. Best Actor? I think Jamie Foxx needs to be awarded and it should be for Ray, but barring that, it wouldn't be the worst thing if he got the Supporting Actor nod for Collateral (he was SO GOOD in that) and Don Cheadle got the Best Actor nod. That category is kinda wide open, and the only person I don't want winning it is Clint Eastwood.
(Should I take a moment to say why all the prejudice against Million Dollar Baby? It's really simple. The first we heard about this movie was about it's award nominations. The *trailer* talks about the Golden Globe noms. This is just uncool, IMHO. I'm sure it's a great movie and that all involved are wonderful in it, and I will go see it, but the advertising campaign and the subsequent onslaught of nominations bugs me.)
Best Actress - I adore Kate Winslet and really want her to win, but she's the underdog in the category. My money's on Annette Bening, and incidentally I'm dying to see Being Julia. Hilary Swank is probably a leading contender, too.
Best Supporting Actress - GO CATE BLANCHETT! She's deserved an award for quite some time, and she was FANTASTIC in The Aviator. But this is the category of surprises. My early money is on Hotel Rwanda's Sophie Okenedo to win it.
Best Supporting Actor - wouldn't it be fun for Thomas Haden Church to win for Sideways? That said, I thought Clive Owen was awesome in Closer, and one of the best performances of the year, period, belonged to Jamie Foxx in Collateral. TOO MANY CHOICES!!!!
People I'm sorry to see left out:
Bryce Dallas Howard, The Village
Paul Giamatti, Sideways
Billy Crudup, Stage Beauty
I'm sure I'll think of more.
And damn, the Oscars are early this year!